Professor Wang Zengwen, deputy director of the Social Security Research Center of Wuhan University, Luo Peiling, a master's candidate, and Wu Jian, a doctoral candidate, published a paper entitled "Research on the Fertility Potential, Willingness and Influencing Factors of Rural Migrant Women: An Empirical Test Based on Machine Learning Algorithms" in the second issue of the CSSCI journal Finance and Trade Research in 2023.

【author】Wang Zengwen,Luo Peiling,Wu Jian

【Published Journal】《财贸研究》

【Journal level】CSSCI

【Publication Time】Issue 2,2023

【Abstract】Based on the data of the 2018 China Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey (CMDS), a machine learning algorithm was used to explore the fertility potential, willingness and influencing factors of rural migrant women. The results show that: first, the overall fertility level of rural migrant women is low but the fertility potential is high; Second, the most significant characteristics that have the most significant impact on rural migrant women's fertility intention include the number of children, whether they have given birth to boys, whether they have given birth to girls, and personal characteristics such as age, education level, and health status. Third, the number of children, age, education level, and whether they have given birth to boys are the four most important factors affecting the fertility intention of rural migrant women. Based on this, on the one hand, it is necessary to pay attention to the increase in the number of rural migrant women, shift their fertility behavior from supervision and control to encouragement and support, and guide rural migrant women with fertility potential to give birth in a targeted manner. On the other hand, it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of the quality and structure of rural migrant women's fertility, improve the level of eugenics and childcare services for the rural floating population, and improve the old-age security system of the rural floating population to reduce the "male preference".

【Keywords】balanced population development; rural migrant women; fertility intentions; machine learning

【Funds】Humanities and Social Sciences Planning Fund of the Ministry of Education, "Research on the Policy Framework for Solving the Problem of Low Fertility under the Imbalance between Childcare Cost and Family Income" (21YJA630093);