Professor Yang Hongyan, a researcher at the Social Security Research Center of Wuhan University, Fan Weike, a master's candidate, and Jiang Wenjing, a doctoral candidate, published a paper entitled "Estimation of the Financing Burden of Long-term Care Insurance Funds: Based on the Comparative Analysis of Eight City Long-term Care Insurance Pilot Programs" in the CSCD journal China Health Policy Research Issue 6, 2023.

【author】Yang Hongyan,Fan Weike,Jiang Wenjing

【Published Journal】《中国卫生政策研究》

【Journal level】CSCD

【Publication Time】Issue 6,2023

【Abstract】This paper uses macro and micro data to establish a Markov model to predict the scale of disabled elderly in China from 2021 to 2030, and calibrate the prediction results to reduce the error rate. Based on the pilot policy, the financing burden of the second batch of 8 city long-term care insurance pilot programs was calculated, and the improvement direction of the long-term care insurance financing program was explored. It is found that in the same period from 2021 to 2030, the scale of severely disabled elderly people will increase by 5%~7% after calibration, the expenditure pressure will increase by 6%, and the emergence of the node of income over expenditure will be 1-2 years in advance. In view of this situation, it is proposed that the Beijing and Kaifeng plans need to set a dynamic financing growth rate, and the Nanning and Fuzhou plans based on the social medical insurance payment base should consider adjusting the financing ratio.

【Keywords】long-term care insurance; financing burden; Measure; Comparative analysis

【Funds】Planning Fund of the Ministry of Education(22YJA630101); The Ministry of Education's Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences has set up its own project "Research on the Effect of Long-term Care Insurance Policy"; Wuhan University's Independent Scientific Research Project (Humanities and Social Sciences) "Special Fund for Fundamental Scientific Research Funds of the Central Universities"; National Natural Science Foundation of China (72274145).